Framework

CALIBRATE The Calibrated Mind

CALIBRATE is the practice of matching the strength of a judgment to the strength of the evidence, then updating when the facts move. Confidence is a report, not a personality trait. A loud claim with a thin source is a calibration failure, not conviction.

The moves
9

When to use it

Use it when a team is confusing loud certainty with a well-scored claim. If nobody can say what evidence would retire the judgment, you do not have a position. You have a mood.

The moves

  1. 01

    Calibrate confidence

    Confidence should be a measurement, not a feeling: take your probability temperature and track whether it reads true.

  2. 02

    Assess assumptions

    Every judgment rests on hidden premises. Surface them before they surface you.

  3. 03

    Lean on probabilities

    Attach real probabilities to your reads, so “likely” stops hiding three different bets.

  4. 04

    Investigate alternatives

    The best test of a belief is the strongest alternative you can construct against it.

  5. 05

    Build updating rules

    Decide how much evidence should move you before the result lands, while you can still be honest.

  6. 06

    Record and review

    A prediction journal is the scorecard that does not lie about your judgment.

  7. 07

    Act with appropriate uncertainty

    You do not need certainty to act. You need a threshold, and the discipline to use it.

  8. 08

    Teach and extend

    The fastest way to find holes in your calibration is to explain it to someone else.

  9. 09

    Evolve your model

    Calibration is a practice, not a state. Notice your own drift and correct it before it costs you.

The book

Available now

The Calibrated Mind

How to Hold Judgments at Their Right Strength Under Uncertainty

Open the book
The series

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Terminology

Not a psychometric product. It is the named system in The Calibrated Mind, live in English paperback and hardcover. The Dutch edition follows shortly.

Citation

CALIBRATE (The Calibrated Mind). Len P. van der Hof, Systems for the Strategic Self. https://lenvanderhof.com/frameworks/calibrate/