Founder Performance
What does calibrate mean? Compare, record, then decide: calibration is not adjustment
Read the instrument before you turn the screw. The same rule works on your own judgment.
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Founder Performance
Evidence-informed systems for focus, resilience and sustainable founder performance.
Founder Performance
Calibration techniques for founders: five practices that fit a week
You do not need a nine-skill curriculum to stop treating a loud sentence as a probability.
Founder Performance
Diagnostic evidence vs fitting evidence: what changes a belief?
A warm reply may be real and still tell you little about a sales target. The useful question is whether campaigns that miss the target show the same sign.
Founder Performance
Do 90% of startups fail? How to fact-check a viral statistic in ten minutes
The 90% figure does exist somewhere. It just measures something other than what the post says.
Founder Performance
Familiar vs true: why repeated claims feel right
Three places you heard a claim may all lead back to one person. Trace the route before you count the sources.
Founder Performance
Write the five lines before you act
An entry after the outcome is a memoir. An entry before it is a record.
Founder Performance
Flow is a condition of work, not a brand mood
Boredom is too easy. Anxiety is too hard. Flow sits between, and it has to be built.
Founder Performance
A holiday is not a refill protocol
Infrastructure has a spec, slack, and an owner. A mood after two weeks off is none of those.
Founder Performance
Founder systems you can run when willpower is gone
Willpower is not the instrument. A weekly cadence that does not ask you to want it more is.
Founder Performance
How to run a pre-mortem in 20 minutes
Asking "what could go wrong?" turns every doubt into a challenge to the plan. Declaring "it has failed" makes explaining the failure the task. The result is a list of risks, not proof of a better decision.
Founder Performance
LEVEL vs CALIBRATE: check the claim, or check your own judgment
One asks whether this claim can carry this decision. The other asks whether your 70% really means 70%.
Founder Performance
The 90% test: why 'I'm sure' is right far less often than it feels
A range you are 90% sure of should miss about once in ten. In one experiment it missed nearly half the time.
Founder Performance
The planning fallacy: a plan is not a forecast
Your plan says what you intend to do. Your record of similar projects says how long that kind of work has taken.
Founder Performance
The Psychology of Founder Resilience: Capacity Is Infrastructure
Resilience is not what you are. It is what you run. This book turns capacity into operator infrastructure you can execute on your worst Tuesday.
Founder Performance
Cognitive reappraisal vs positive thinking: keep the facts
The board's request is a fact. Your verdict on what it means is still a guess. Separate the two before you respond.
Founder Performance
What resilience research found: staying level is not bouncing back
Staying roughly level and recovering after a sustained drop are different paths. That distinction changes how you read a difficult week.
Founder Performance
Reversible vs irreversible decisions: classify the door before you decide
Bezos split decisions into one-way and two-way doors. Most founder decisions sit somewhere in between, and some doors close while you still think they are open.
Founder Performance
Stoic systems: judgment as infrastructure, not a mood
A quote wall is not decision infrastructure. Judgment under pressure needs a protocol you can run and review.
Founder Performance
Being stoic is not Stoicism: the philosophy was never about hiding your feelings
The everyday word praises a straight face. The philosophy asked what you concluded behind it.
Founder Performance
What is a calibration session, and what should it produce?
HR calibration aims for consistent ratings. Forecasting calibration puts confidence to a later test. In both, agreement alone does not show that the session worked.
Founder Performance
What calibration means: matching confidence to evidence
Confidence is a report, not a mood. A loud claim with a thin source is a calibration failure, not conviction.
Founder Performance
What does 'likely' mean? Ask five people and you get five numbers
A shared word is not a shared number. The CIA learned that in 1951, and most teams still have not.
Founder Performance
What is a confidence grade? Why "high confidence" is not 90%
"High confidence" tells you about the evidence behind a claim. It does not tell you the odds, or what to do next.
Founder Performance
What is founder resilience? Capacity, not a mood
The company can keep moving while you are its hidden single point of failure. That is what this word is for.
Founder Performance
What is LEVEL? A five-step check before you act on a claim
The same evidence can be good enough for a small test and too weak for a big commitment. LEVEL is how you tell the two apart.